The Federal Reserve begins a two-day policy meeting today, Tuesday, October 27, 2026, and its decision on Wednesday will set the tone for borrowing costs, mortgages, credit cards and job growth into the end of the year. The market’s central expectation is straightforward: rates will be held steady. What is less certain is what the Fed signals about the hikes markets are pricing in for 2027.
That expectation comes with an important caveat. The Fed raised rates last month, inflation indicators remain elevated — partly amid the ongoing US-Iran tensions and higher energy prices — and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has repeatedly reminded markets that the inflation target has now been exceeded for more than 60 straight months. A hold on Wednesday would therefore be a pause, not a promise that rates will fall.
What to expect on Wednesday
According to Reuters reporting on Tuesday, US stock futures were little changed as investors waited for the decision, with crude oil near its highest level in six weeks after falling in the previous session. Traders are pricing in just a 10 percent chance of a hike this week, but at least two more hikes by mid-2027.
The earnings week that will move your 401(k)
The Fed is only half the week’s story. Coca-Cola, Boeing, PayPal, UPS, Visa and others report before Tuesday’s opening bell, and the giants arrive later in the week: Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday, the same day as the Fed decision, followed by Amazon and Intel on Thursday. Investors will parse those results for one question above all: is the enormous spending on AI infrastructure turning into real growth and profit?
That question already moved markets on Monday. Meta Platforms increased its largest-ever equity fundraising to $97.5 billion to fund AI expansion, and Nvidia announced an expanded partnership with Meta on AI models, plus a $3 billion investment in Meta’s equity offering. Tesla shares climbed in premarket trading after jumping more than 5 percent in the previous session, while Whirlpool dropped 8.8 percent after reporting a third-quarter loss and missing revenue estimates.
What a hold means for your money
If the Fed holds, as expected, the practical effect for households is stability rather than relief. Mortgage rates, auto loans and credit-card APRs are unlikely to fall sharply this week, because they already reflect the higher-rate environment. Savers, on the other hand, continue to earn relatively attractive yields on high-yield savings accounts and short-term bonds — a benefit of higher rates that is easy to overlook when borrowing feels expensive.
The bigger risk to household budgets this week is energy. Oil near six-week highs, if sustained, feeds into petrol prices and heating costs heading into winter, and into the prices of goods transported by truck, rail and air.
Key takeaways
- Fed meeting: starts today, October 27; decision expected Wednesday, October 28.
- Expected outcome: rates held steady; markets price only about a 10 percent chance of a hike this week.
- Longer view: markets price at least two more hikes by mid-2027, as inflation stays above target.
- Earnings to watch: Coca-Cola, Boeing and PayPal today; Alphabet and Microsoft Wednesday; Amazon and Intel Thursday.
- Household impact: no quick relief for borrowers if rates hold; savers keep higher yields; watch petrol and heating costs if oil stays high.
Bottom line: Wednesday is unlikely to change your interest rate overnight — but the Fed’s words about 2027, combined with Big Tech earnings, will tell you whether borrowing stays expensive, whether jobs stay strong, and whether the AI boom is paying for itself.
