Four days before the November 3 midterm elections, the national picture is clear — and the Senate map is suddenly looking much better for Democrats. The RealClearPolling average puts Democrats ahead of Republicans by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent on the generic congressional ballot, an 8.2-point lead, according to Al Jazeera’s October 30 roundup of the latest polls.
The short answer is this: Democrats are favoured to win the House, and the Senate — long seen as the harder prize — is now genuinely in play. New CNN polls released October 29 give Democrats leads in four battleground Senate races, including two outside the margin of error.
What the new Senate polls show
According to CNN, which polled with the nonpartisan research firm SSRS over the past week starting October 20, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 49 percent to 42 percent in Michigan, and Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 49 percent to 43 percent in Texas. Both leads are outside the polls’ margins of error, which range from plus or minus 4.2 to 4.7 percentage points.
In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins 49 percent to 45 percent, and in Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall 49 percent to 45 percent. Those two races are within the margin of error. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control from Republicans, who currently hold a 53-47 advantage, according to USA Today’s report on the CNN polls.
Why voters are leaning this way
The economy is the dominant explanation in the polling. A Marquette Law School poll conducted in Wisconsin from October 14 to October 22 and released October 28 put President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 37 percent, with 61 percent disapproving. Only 16 percent of respondents said they were better off financially than a year earlier, while 42 percent said they were worse off, according to Al Jazeera’s summary of the poll.
Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, told Al Jazeera that Trump’s declining approval ratings and economic concerns are alarming Republicans. He also issued the standard caution that matters most in a close year: “Polls are not perfect predictions of outcomes. We could see those close races go either way, either due to polling errors or due to voters moving just a little more in one direction or the other.”
Trump changes his final-weekend plan
Trump has cancelled weekend appearances scheduled in Kansas and Iowa, replacing them with telephone rallies across nearly 20 states in the final days before Tuesday’s elections, Al Jazeera reported. The Washington Post, cited in the same roundup, reported that Trump cancelled his Kansas rally to hold virtual events instead.
What is on the ballot Tuesday
All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
Key takeaways
- Generic ballot average: Democrats 51.4 percent, Republicans 43.2 percent (RealClearPolling, via Al Jazeera).
- CNN/SSRS Senate polls (Oct. 29): Michigan El-Sayed 49-42, Texas Talarico 49-43, Maine Jackson 49-45, Kansas Hamilton 49-45.
- Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats; Republicans lead the chamber 53-47.
- Marquette poll (Wisconsin, Oct. 14-22): Trump approval 37 percent, disapproval 61 percent.
- Trump cancelled Kansas and Iowa weekend appearances, switching to telephone rallies across nearly 20 states.
- Election Day: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 — four days away.
Bottom line: The polls point one way, but four days is a long time in a midterm — and the Senate races in Maine and Kansas are close enough that turnout alone could decide them.
